Are We Being Tracked?
In Which We Talk About Whether a Book's Performance Affects Future Book Deals 🫠
I am a numbers junkie, so anytime an author posts their sales numbers, advance figures, marketing costs, etc. etc. I jump at the chance to read them. And it seems like I’m in good company because the posts where I share any of my figures are always my most read. I love the questions that come along with these figures, and after my most recent Royalties Roundup, we got a question in that we haven’t covered yet. Here’s what one of our fellow Ventorship passengers asks:
I wonder if you'd ever do a post about your experiences related to your sales "track" and what conversations have been had with your publishers around that. E.g., some of your books have not earned out (which I know is typical), but I'm wondering if that's been brought up by editors, impacted your futures deals, etc.
So, Track Curious, here’s another moment in publishing where I’m going to give an annoyingly vague answer: I’m not sure. No editor has ever said to me directly that the low performance of my last four novels will affect my advances, but I do know multiple authors who have heard this, and based on my past experiences, I can venture a guess that the advance figures I’ll be offered will go down.
Let’s take a look at my advances from HarperCollins for the four young adult novels I pubbed with them. I got these in two separate, two-book deals, the first of which was for $40K per book, and the second of which was for $50K per book. This increase was 1) welcome, and 2) due to my first two books with them earning out (or I think in the case of OUT OF THE BLUE, which hadn’t earned out quite yet at the time of my second deal, it was clear to them that it was going to, which it ultimately did). This was told to me directly, that my nice sales figures was leading to a jump in advance.
With this in mind, I think it’d be safe to say that poor sales figures would lead to a decrease in advance. Because my last four novels haven’t even sold half as many copies as my first two, by the transitive property (inappropriate use here, I’m sure), I wouldn’t expect to be offered much more than half of what I got for that first book deal. And, ultimately, I wouldn’t blame the publisher for that. This is a business, after all, and I can’t expect to be making the same amount when my books aren’t pulling the same weight at this point.
Publishing and math don’t always go hand-in-hand (certainly not in my brain), so it’s not always a one-for-one (too many hyphenated words in one sentence, huh?) in that someone goes “Oh, since your most recent book sold 40% of what your best book sold we’ll only offer you 40% of that best-book advance”, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to guesstimate numbers for yourself with this kind of mindset. In my head (and I have no idea if this is the right way to think or not, since I have no behind-the-scenes at the publisher experience), I always keep a They only remember the last thing you do mentality, and prepare myself to be judged by the success or failure of my most recent book. It obviously goes your way if your most recent book is a banger, but in the stage of my book career I’m in now, I don’t think the odds are ever in my favor 😅
One thing that I think has the potential to supersede sales figures, though, is when you hop age categories or genre for the first time. In essence, it’s like you’re debuting again, so nobody can really hold sales figures against you too strongly when nobody knows how you perform in that new world. This has happened to me with my adult romance books that will start to come out next year. I got offered an advance for these that I think is in the realm of normal (neither low nor astronomical) based on convos I’ve had with other romance authors: $30K per book. So, lower than my first YA deals, but adult romances that start as paperbacks have a whole different rubric, and I’m hoping my sales will make this number only go up for future deals 🤞🏻
So how’s that for a convoluted answer to whether or not my sales track has affected my advances? Who can say really, but certainly yes, maybe.
How about you, fellow authors? Any anecdotes about sales track affecting future advances? Feel free to put them in the comments below, or if you’d like to stay anonymous, write to me at heyjasonjune@gmail.com and I’ll include your thoughts with no name attached.
Here’s to hefty advances and fabulous track records for all of us!
-JJ
If you’d like to anonymously vent about anything author/writing related, write to me at heyjasonjune@gmail.com with the subject: VENTORSHIP. I’ll give you my take in a post, and we’ll crowdsource author opinions in the comments. You’ll remain anonymous, and any haters will be thrown overboard. Ultimately, I think you’re going to be buoyed up by author love and support as we realize we really are all in the same boat 🛳️
An anonymous comment from a fellow Ventorship passenger:
My experience has been that publishers and editors can be quite cowardly about telling an author that they're disappointed in sales. Generally, they just sort of go quiet. This happened to me when the preorders by bookstores weren't what they expected. For those that don't know, the most important sales--the ones directly to bookstores--happen before your book is even released. A publisher had promised me some updated sales figures around release day, but when I asked, they got very snippy and sales & marketing responded with something along the lines of 'our team is doing its best for your book' rather than offering any figures. A bad sign, I realize now. It also happens when it's time for the publisher to decide whether they'll give you another contract. I've been ghosted by my own editor, which I think is ridiculous. We authors are grown-ups; we also get bad news from our agents all the time. So why do our publishers think we can't handle a frank conversation?
Another anonymous comment from an author:
My debut series in YA definitely did not perform according to what my publisher hoped, and they paid a good chunk of money for it. I switched age categories, and (as you mentioned), my YA sales didn't come up at all. When I went back to YA, my publisher warned that they wouldn't be able to match my first deal (not a surprise because of the amount), but they still offered a very good sum. In the end, mostly due to a preference to retain certain rights, we went to a different publisher who didn't really bring up previous sales at all. At the same time, one of the Big 5 completely stepped back due to my past sales because they felt they "couldn't relaunch me in a way that would get their sales team excited." That stung a bit, but I rallied!
I actually think the concept of your book matters a lot! So, if you have a less-than-great track record, but your newest book is something editors and sales teams are excited about, they don't seem to care as much.
Something else I've heard / something else I actually do -- I know some editors will actually use bookscan to look at the sales of books you comp yours to, so now when I'm going out with a book, I do try to find a book that comps well to mine AND has good sales. The truth is, sales folks (even in publishing) are numbers people, and that seems to be what speaks to them.